System and method for forecasting energy usage load
DC
First Claim
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1. A system for forecasting energy usage load for a facility, comprising:
- a server having a load forecasting application running thereon, the load forecasting application including;
a parameter identification module for determining periodic energy load usage of the facility, and a load prediction module for generating energy usage load forecast profiles for the facility in a real-time adaptive manner to provide real-time forecasting for the facility; and
a database associated with the server for storing load forecasting information therein, wherein the database includes respective sets of matrices associated with the parameter identification module and the load prediction module.
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Abstract
A system and method for forecasting energy usage load for a facility includes a server having a load forecasting application, which includes 1) a parameter identification module for determining periodic energy load usage of the facility and 2) a load prediction module for generating energy usage load forecast profiles for the facility. The load forecasting application may include a database for storing information and a report module for generating energy usage load forecast profiles. The database may include a first set of matrices associated with the parameter identification module for storing periodic energy usage load parameter information, and a second set of matrices associated with the load prediction module for storing energy usage prediction information. The first set of matrices may include a matrix for storing coefficients for determining periodic changes in energy load usage, and a model parameter matrix for storing load parameter information.
348 Citations
19 Claims
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1. A system for forecasting energy usage load for a facility, comprising:
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a server having a load forecasting application running thereon, the load forecasting application including;
a parameter identification module for determining periodic energy load usage of the facility, and a load prediction module for generating energy usage load forecast profiles for the facility in a real-time adaptive manner to provide real-time forecasting for the facility; and
a database associated with the server for storing load forecasting information therein, wherein the database includes respective sets of matrices associated with the parameter identification module and the load prediction module. - View Dependent Claims (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10)
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11. A method for forecasting energy usage load for a facility for a selected forecast day, comprising the steps of:
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generating a forecast table for relating main forecast points for which an energy usage load forecast profile can be generated, with respective dependent forecast points that can be used to determine an energy usage load forecast profile for the facility, the respective dependent forecast points including at least one of;
a prior generated energy usage load forecast profile for the facility;
minimum and maximum temperature measurements for the selected forecast day; and
periodic energy usage load information for the facility;
generating an energy usage load forecast profile for the facility for the selected forecast day based on the main forecast points and the respective dependent forecast points; and
adjusting the energy usage load forecast profile so that the average value of the energy usage load forecast profile is similar to that of a calculated average temperature of the selected forecast day. - View Dependent Claims (12, 13)
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14. A system for forecasting energy usage load, comprising:
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a plurality of facilities having one or more energy using devices therein, the plurality of facilities including one or more client computer systems for communicating over a network;
a server being connected to the one or more client computer systems over the network, the server having a load forecasting application running thereon for receiving an energy usage load forecast profile request from a requesting facility wherein the requesting facility is at least one of the plurality of facilities, and for generating a resulting energy usage load forecast profile in response thereto, the load forecasting application including a parameter identification module for determining periodic energy load usage for the requesting facility, and a load prediction module for generating a resulting energy usage load forecast profile for the requesting facility; and
a database associated with the server for storing load forecasting information therein, wherein the database includes respective sets of matrices associated with the parameter identification module and the load prediction module. - View Dependent Claims (15)
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16. A computer program product for use in generating energy usage load forecast profiles for a facility for a selected forecast day, comprising:
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instructions contained on the computer program product for generating a parameter identifier for determining periodic energy load usage of the facility, and instructions contained on the computer program product for generating a load predictor for generating energy usage load forecast profiles for the facility, the energy usage load forecast profiles being adjusted periodically to reflect changing conditions, wherein a first set of matrices is associated with the parameter identifier, the first set of matrices including;
an information matrix for storing update coefficients for determining periodic changes in energy load usage of the facility, and a model parameter matrix for storing load parameter information for determining energy usage load forecast profiles for the facility. - View Dependent Claims (17, 18, 19)
where e indicates an energy usage load forecast profile, a indicates a base value of energy usage load at the facility, b indicates the rate of air temperature cooling over time, c indicates the rate of air temperature heating over time, T indicates current temperature, θ
indicates a parameter vector determined from the information matrix, and Φ
indicates a weather-related perturbation vector determined from the model parameter matrix, and wherein Dc and Dh respectively indicate the weather classification (cool or hot) for the selected forecast day as determined according to the following algorithm
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18. The computer program product of claim 17, wherein the information matrix is updated periodically according to the following algorithm
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{ θ ( t ) = θ ( t - 1 ) + P ( t ) Φ ( t ) { e ( t ) - θ T ( t - 1 ) Φ ( t ) } P ( t ) = P ( t - 1 ) - P ( t - 1 ) Φ ( t ) Φ T ( t ) P ( t - 1 ) 1 + Φ T ( t ) P ( t - 1 ) Φ ( t ) where θ
(t) is θ
at time t, and P(t) indicates the information matrix at time t.
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19. The computer program product of claim 17, wherein the information matrix is updated hourly according to the following algorithm
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{ θ ij ( new ) = θ ij ( old ) + P ij ( new ) Φ ( t ) { e ( t ) - θ ij T ( old ) Φ ( t ) } P ij ( new ) = P ij ( old ) - P ij ( old ) Φ ( t ) Φ T ( t ) P ij ( old ) 1 + Φ T ( t ) P ij ( old ) Φ ( t ) where e and Φ
are measured values at time t, i indicates day type, and j indicates hour-of-day.
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Specification
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Litigation Data
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Current AssigneeFrance Brevets SAS
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Original AssigneeSilicon Energy Corp. (Itron, Inc.)
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InventorsAfshari, Afshin
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Primary Examiner(s)WACHSMAN, HAL D
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Application NumberUS09/676,299Time in Patent Office985 DaysField of Search702/61, 702/57, 702/60, 702/62, 702/64, 702/183, 702/188, 702/196, 702/130, 702/136, 702/FOR.103, 702/FOR.104, 702/FOR.106, 702/FOR.111, 702/FOR.112, 702/FOR.114, 702/FOR.134, 702/FOR.135, 702/FOR.170, 702/FOR.142, 324/103.R, 324/116, 324/141, 324/142, 307/38, 307/39, 307/126, 340/870.02, 340/870.16, 340/870.17, 705/412, 705/10, 700/291, 700/295-297, 703/3, 703/4, 706/45US Class Current702/61CPC Class CodesG06Q 10/06 Resources, workflows, human...
